Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle: A Tale of Two Halvings
The Bitcoin halving, a four-year event where mining rewards are halved, has historically sparked a bull run, followed by a correction and a bear market. But 2025 might be the year the cycle broke. Bitcoin ended the year lower than it began, marking the first time it's fallen in a post-halving year.
The Cycle's Death?
Analysts and investors have been predicting the death of the four-year cycle for months. The influx of new institutions and traders has changed the game, with Bitcoin now reacting to liquidity, rates, regulation, and geopolitics, rather than a perfect halving calendar. But is the cycle truly dead?
A Different Dance?
Some industry figures argue that the cycle is alive, just playing out differently. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, suggests that the cycle remains intact, but it's no longer dictated by programmed supply cuts. The halving still matters, but the supply is increasingly locked, miners have financing options, and price dynamics aren't as automatic as before.
Controversial Take?
The four-year cycle has been a popular prediction tool, but it's not without controversy. Some argue that it's a myth, while others believe it's a valuable framework. The debate rages on, and the comments section awaits your thoughts. Do you think the cycle is dead, or just evolving?
